London cases continue to grow

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For anyone watching the news recently, it is clear that Covid-19 cases are growing. Although restrictions were subsequently placed on some regions in the North of England, we can’t expect an immediate slowdown in Covid cases. As we explained in our last blog, someone catching the virus will take roughly 5 days before showing symptoms and going for a test (and appearing in the data). Similarly, any factors causing the rate of transmission to slow, will not show in the data for a similar period of time. 

In other words, we need to wait until we see data for Thursday 6 August before any hint of a fall in daily new cases can be expected. 

Since our last update, we have updated our model of new cases in London by 11 days. This takes us to the end of July, or winding back 6 days, any stimulus changing the rate of transmission before 25 July.

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Over this period, we can see that the rate of change has stabilised as we’d expected. All earlier quarantine changes are now having a minimal effect. In itself this is quite interesting, because it shows us that we all have short memories, and any changes to our behaviour tend to naturally ebb away after a week or so. The consequence is we all need to be continually scared to keep the virus at bay. 

Looking ahead, the virus in London has been continuing to grow at a rate which will lead to a second wave in October. But the big question is whether the fear generated from imposing restrictions on other parts of the UK will translate into a change in London. We won’t have long to wait to find out. If not, then London and many other regions of the UK must prepare for restrictions later on this month. 

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